Sunday, May 17, 2015

an overly tight fold


The above situation confronted me in a tournament yesterday and as you can see from the fact that my cards are grayed out, I folded.  In retrospect I think this was a slight mistake. First of all, the preflop raiser is simply opening.  When I three bet all in he may very well fold. While his stats indicate he is tight that is over a very small sample. A lot of the hands he would be flipping with me could very well fold to my reraise (a tremendous coup for myself) and I am losing only to TT, JJ, QQ, KK or AA (around 2.2% of hands).  So only around 8.514% of the time will and of the people acting after me wake up with a hand that has me crushed.  I estimate I have the initial raiser beat probably around 80% of the time as well. And both the preflop raiser (especially him) but also anyone behind me could call with a hand that I have beaten. In retrospect this is a clear reraise jam.

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