Monday, June 8, 2015

pushbot

Two questions. In the below situation should I be reshoving vs 6 bb stack open shove from CO and should I open shove vs BB?  We are slightly above the '10 bb' threshold but not if you adjust for antes.  I think this is around the bubble as well, FWIW.  My suspicious is that MingRey will be shoving wide.  We're actually a dog vs a 40% shoving range.  Our opponent has to be shoving 60% before we're a % favourite.  However there is basically 3600 extra in the pot (our 625, ur opponents 625, the 1250 from the BB and the antes) so we're getting around 1.5:1 and have the direct odds vs a tight 20% shoving range (simulations below).  Unfortunately some % of the time BB will wake up with a big hand and we're a huge dog.  I expect him to call a lot of the hands that have us crushed, although maybe something like A8 or 66 will find a fold vs shove reshove (these hands are almost certainly calling if we open jam the SB, indeed some hands like KQ or 22 might call).  Actually I expect our opponent to be jamming more like 50% given his aggressive statistics and the fact that this is proper play at this stack size.  So I do think it's worth the risk to over jam vs the short stacks push.







Hold'em Simulation ? 
398,966,832 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
As4h40.99%151,195,31124,671,138
20%59.01%223,100,38324,671,138
Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 
Hold'em Simulation ? 
1,236,283,488 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
As4h51.62%599,910,99076,399,193
60%48.38%559,973,30576,399,193
Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 
Hold'em Simulation ? 
792,796,752 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
As4h46.90%335,079,88173,445,346
40%53.10%384,271,52573,445,346

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